Hi, I suggest you keep going for the lucky spin because it won’t be bad at all even if you end up in a feared “worst case scenario”:


- if balloted out of 2B scgs
- ballot again 2c scgs, if bad luck strikes twice
- then ballot again 2cs mcs, if you are really that unlucky to fail thrice
- moe will assign you to a school nearby with vacancies left after 2CS, which is most likely Fairer Park Primary School FPPS

Honestly there is nothing wrong with FPPS I have heard good things being done by the current principal who is very popular and gets compliments by many parents. The only thing uncertain is that FPPS is merging with Stamford PS next year and there will be a new principal. Anyway my friend in the school told me that there are more and more students who fail in balloting for popular schools nearby (ACSP, ACSJ, SJIJ, SCGS etc) who end up in FPPS and many of them are quite happy with the school in the end (after the initial disappointment with balloting).

Anyway since you have 3 tries the odds of you ending up in this worst case scenario is very low, and like I said even this “worst case outcome” is really an alright outcome still. You could also always apply for waitlist at SCGS as soon as possible and while transfer is not guaranteed it’s still an option to try.

Given the above I see no loss in keep trying. But anyway the odds for SCGS 2B really isn’t that bad (2/3) so maybe come Tuesday morning you would be relieved to realise that all these overthinking might not be necessary. All the best!

Cytan77\" post_id=\"2075881\" time=\"1658644799\" user_id=\"148552:

Hi babe!

I was told 30 applicants are within 1 KM for phase 2B😩

I agree with your conclusion that the schools definitely have the numbers but I think your supporting evidence from pre pandemic years are not useful - the others were suggesting that since 2C registration have gone full online since start of pandemic in 2020 and since the schools do not need any supporting documents for 2C (save for those using non nric addresses using online form instead of p1-IS system) they are not privy to the information on total applicants numbers. What happened pre pandemic with physical applications was a different scenario.


However I also think that the schools still have the information and my supporting argument is that in in the past 2 years there were people who said that schools called them up to inform them that they had no chance for ballot (eg applicants in the nearer distance brackets were already way oversubscribed). If other schools were able to do this I don’t believe that rgps is any different.

I do however think that moving things online makes a difference in the sense that in the old days the school just had to do one thing which is update the board outside the office, and whether or not people choose to go down to take a look is their choice and school doesn’t think that practice is discriminating anyone. It’s also administratively easy.

During the pandemic years outsiders were not allowed to enter the school and the only was that anyone can get the information was by calling the school. Rgps likely is one of the schools with most calls and the admin office would probably be super busy and overloaded with answering these calls. Not to mention in a way it was a bit unfair as the information was given to the few who called or could get through the line and not “publicly made available” on a white board that all were able to go down and see. Although this could be controversial as one can say that anyone could pick up the phone and call and those who don’t do that made their own choice not to obtain information? So I think likely rgps just couldn’t handle or didn’t want to handle the sheer number of parents that kept calling every few minutes, not good for parents but I guess understandable.

phtthp\" post_id=\"2075530\" time=\"1658385193\" user_id=\"35251:

Of course !

Of course, RGPS school herself would have ALL the full details at their finger tip, of who have registered under each of Phase (2A or 2B or 2C), and whether each child registered is an SC / PR / etc

Otherwise,
for so many donkey years,
up to the very last pre-covid year 2019 -

How would the Admin staff (RGPS) EVERY 5 minutes or so -

from ( 3.30 pm to 4.30 pm ding ding ding Bell ring for closure ) this critical batch window last minute P1 registration, on the last day of 2C

be able to
immediately come out of the school hall,
quickly walked up to the white board,
used a white board Eraser to erase away all previous old data and quickly refreshed information instanteously, into very minute detailed information,

for each and every single Phase of students enrolment in (2A1 / 2A2 / 2B / 2C
) :-

1) for less than 1 km -
how many (SC + PR + foreigner)s have registered ?

2) between (1 to 2 km) -
how many (SC + PR + foreigner)s have registered ?

3) more than 2 km, exceeded -
how many (SC + PR + foreigner)s have registered?

This so stable system \"instantaneous\" data release keeping track had been implemented & in place for so many donkey years, way, way way even before I registered my kid in year 2014, up to the very last year 2019.

Let's use our common sense !
Otherwise, without such detailed info breakdown available, how do u expect the Rgps Admin staff to be able to walk out of the hall every 5 minutes quickly, to update the white board info urgently, so confidently?

That only point to one conclusive thing !

Data, definitely RGPS has, proven by past decade(s) of releasing white board info, in this manner.

But, strangely,
when the pandemic started from year 2020 onwards,
somehow,
Rgps have decided to keep silent on releasing data, for whatever reasons.

Either

1) Moe instructed Rgps to stop their old method of updating white board every 5 minutes, for whatever reasons,

Or

2) Rgps Principal ( Mrs Yue Yoke Mun ) has clearly instructed her admin staff, to practise otherwise.

It has been and will always been competitive. There are twice as many seats this year in 2C (20->40) but there will be a lot more applicants. I have personally heard of quite a few people moving to 1km to have a try once they heard about the news on increase in reserved seats. It will probably still be better odds than last year (1:3) maybe 1:2 but still fierce.


But there is not much point in all these discussion above because you don’t have much other choice nearby anyway and it costs nothing to try. Unless you are thinking of applying on 2C to a school much further away but does not require balloting. I don’t see much value in giving up a chance at nyps and go straight to say Bukit Timah Primary School or Queenstown Primary School in 2C for more certainty but I don’t know maybe some would consider it.

BTPS is shoo in ar 2C but probably requires balloting for more than 2KM for 2CS, if you fail to secure a seat at NYPS in 2C you can risk balloting again in 2CS for BTPS, or go for New Town Primary School which had never filled up in 2CS so far, it is also nearer to you than BTPS.

Ct502\" post_id=\"2075392\" time=\"1658311356\" user_id=\"198805:

Hi all, any insights/thoughts on NYPS for phase 2c? I am currently living within 1km, and unfortunately it’s the only option we have as we have a 2016 boy. And would Bukit Timah Pri be a safe 2cs option? It seems like it would likely go into balloting for >2km. Thanks in advance

It’s just a matter of simple maths.


(1) if the remainder number is divisible by 3, no rounding required

(2) if there is a remainder of 1 after division by 3, 2B will round down (0.333…) and get 0 more and 2C will round up (0.666…) and get 1 more seat

- compared to old system, if there is 1 remainder seat left after dividing by 2, it goes to 2B (you can say 0.5 round up can go to either phase but it seems that MOE decided the first phase that takes place gets to do the round up first) > i.e. 2B is worse off than before

(3) if there is a remainder of 2 after devision by 3, 2B will round up (0.666…) and get 1 more seat and 2C will round down (1.333…) and get 1 more seat as well

- compared to old system, if there were 2 seats, 1 each goes to phase B and C as the denominator was 2 (2/2 = 1) thus no difference

Stylomum\" post_id=\"2075338\" time=\"1658294829\" user_id=\"143725:

For the schools I’m targeting, it is a round UP. So in your example, Phase 2B gets 29 and Phase 2 C gets 56. The missing 1 place in some schools might be due to twins instead of the the rounding.

Ai Tong, Cat High, NYPS, and Pei Hwa - all skipped phase 2A2 last year, they were oversubscribed in 2A1 (or exact matching number for Ai Tong) so there wasn’t any accurate number reflecting how many were eligible for 2A2 but didn’t get a chance to even try.


Looking at historical data for the most recent years when these schools still had spots for 2A2 applicants, the total number don’t seem that much different from this year’s combined 2A numbers, save for Cat High’s 149 vs 2020’s 136 (+13). And of course genuine +20 or more applicants for Henry Park which has not skipped phase 2A2 in last 3 years, is a bit of surprise.

SG_KP1\" post_id=\"2074488\" time=\"1657810582\" user_id=\"188234:

Interesting that some of the big name schools saw a noticeable increase in 2A applicants vs. 2A1 + 2A2 combined figure last year. This is due to some alumni that would have been in 2A2 joining the pool (either didn't want to pay to join or missed deadline to register)? Or other changes like staff now eligible for the combined pool (wouldn't think this is a large figure)? Or something else (randomness, schools somehow getting \"hotter\" than before)?

SNGS and Tao Nan were down (this year's 2A vs. last year's combined 2A1+2A2 (if applicable)). Ai Tong, Cat High, Henry Park, NYPS, and Pei Hwa all up 20+ applicants.

Oops you are right. Need to check my eyes

SG_KP1\" post_id=\"2074428\" time=\"1657791973\" user_id=\"188234:

I think the Nan Hua case is all SC > 2 km don't get to ballot. The 77 spots were exactly filled up < 1 km + 1-2 km.

There is a more exaggerated case over at Nan Hua, 111 applicants for 77 spots but not balloting required as all the SCs got in. That means there are 34 PR applicants :shock:

SG_KP1\" post_id=\"2074423\" time=\"1657791739\" user_id=\"188234:

I think it means two alumni are non-SC (likely PR).

Yup, but since like skii said the odds can be anywhere from 1/69 to 43/44 for Pei Hwa and

1/41 to 72/73 for Rosyth and we have no way to know, at least there are (1) more vacancies in terms of absolute number (44 vs 73) and (2) the lower and upper boundary odds are both better for Rosyth, I just make a general estimation statement lol.

Of course it doesn’t mean much only the actual numbers matter but short of someone calling the schools and finding out I’d just say looks more scary on paper.

floppy\" post_id=\"2074409\" time=\"1657790622\" user_id=\"97579:

For Pei Hwa, it doesn't mean 112 for 44 places.
Given that balloting is only for 1-2km, you do not know how much places are taken up by < 1km, and how many people among the 112 are > 2km.
In the worst possible case scenario:
43 applicants are < 1km, 0 applicant > 2km.
Resulting in 69 applicants balloting for 1 spot.

Ouch Pei Hwa numbers are fierce, 112 appplied for 43 spots. As expected, balloting in 1-2 km bracket. Rosyth also balloting 1-2 km but at least there are 73 spots for 113 applicants.

SG_KP1\" post_id=\"2074398\" time=\"1657789377\" user_id=\"188234:

Just updated!

If we are lucky the numbers might be out today. I noticed they typically take around 2 working days to release the final numbers in the past years. 2A registration closed on a Friday this year and followed by a long weekend so MOE staff (and schools) probably started working on it when they return to work on Tuesday. They say “by 14 July” latest cut off just in case there is any surprises / issues that require additional time to resolve.