2019 P1 Registration Exercise for 2020 In-take

[Davischew]

floppy\" post_id=\"1919160\" time=\"1562900615\" user_id=\"97579:

Davischew\" post_id=\"1919148\" time=\"1562898911\" user_id=\"132882:

[quote=floppy post_id=1919143 time=1562898445 user_id=97579]

What do you mean by backup plan? Phase 2Cs backup? Or alternatives to Poi Ching?

Phase 2C:
Gongshang will also ballot < 1km like St Hilda, Poi Ching. Just out of the fire, but back into the flying pan.
Junyuan shoo-in for < 1km but may ballot > 1km.
Tampines shoo-In for SC.

Based on current TUR of 35% after 2A1, Poi Ching has a very high chance not to ballot for <1km and even if ballot is high odds. 2A2 should add another 9% to 44% TUR at 2A2, which is historically low. I would suggest to monitor and go in on last 2C day.

St. Hilda can forget about it, too risky.

While statistics about TUR etc is good, considering them in silo usually doesn't work well. Geographical considerations are also important.

Firstly, schools in close proximity to one another 'suffer' together (high density). If TUR before Phase 2C is low, it encourages switchers. E.g. Poi Ching may have historically low TUR before Phase 2C this year, thus leaving plenty of seats for Phase 2C. It encourages applicants who might otherwise have considered Gongshang, Junyuan, St Hilda, Tampines North, Tampines or Yumin (depending on location, these schools are also < 1km of Poi Ching catchment area) to go for Poi Ching in Phase 2C instead. Singaporeans like a good g4mble, maybe this is their chance

Furthermore, I expect to see a spike for Poi Ching's application from 2019 and beyond. There's a YUGE project going on in Tampines North with a lot (and I do mean A LOT) of flats under construction in and around Tampines Ave 6 and Tampines St 61. For residents occupying these projects, there is only ONE school within 1km. The school's name? Poi Ching Estimated TOP? 2019 :yikes: More than 30 blocks of flats and only 1 school within 1 km? Good luck to them :evil:

P/S: For the above, one school that shares similar switchers mentality - Chong Fu. Low TUR before Phase 2C means zilch. Plenty of lurkers < 1km who might consider other schools within 1km (plenty of options) will switch if the chance is high. For sudden spike, it happens to a much lesser known school - Punggol Green. From a school with surplus in Phase 2Cs, to a school that requires ballot for SC < 1km within 1 year, because Punggol Green is the only < 1km school for a huge number of BTOs.[/quote]Good point Floppy! Thanks for the insights

I encountered the same kind of situation 2 years ago, where I had to withdraw from 1 sch and rush to another sch on the last hour, last day of 2C. Almost going to a 3rd sch within same vicinity haha

[howard1019]

floppy\" post_id=\"1919143\" time=\"1562898445\" user_id=\"97579:

howard1019\" post_id=\"1919142\" time=\"1562897947\" user_id=\"175129:

We stay around Tampines area, both Poi Ching & St. Hilda's are within 1KM, the rest schools within Tampines are within 1-2KM. We are SC and going to register under 2C phase.
St. Hilda's is too HOT to apply, so Poi Ching is our 1st choice, but look at the historical data, thinking it's high chance this year balloting will be required within 1KM. So better to have a backup plan. Considering Gongshang, Tampines, Junyuan, which one will be the best next choice? Any suggestions are welcome.

What do you mean by backup plan? Phase 2Cs backup? Or alternatives to Poi Ching?

Phase 2C:
Gongshang will also ballot < 1km like St Hilda, Poi Ching. Just out of the fire, but back into the flying pan.
Junyuan shoo-in for < 1km but may ballot > 1km.
Tampines shoo-In for SC.

floppy, thank you very much for your fast reply.
So amount Poi Ching, Gongshang and St. Hilda, I think Poi Ching still get bigger chance to get a seat compare with St. Hilda. so we'd better stick with our 1st choice go to Poi Ching. For Gongshang, seems no any chance for us.
Both Junyuan and Tampines will be safe for us to apply in both 2C and 2CS. Is Tampines better than Junyuan? :roll:

[Lexy]

floppy\" post_id=\"1919160\" time=\"1562900615\" user_id=\"97579:

Davischew\" post_id=\"1919148\" time=\"1562898911\" user_id=\"132882:

Based on current TUR of 35% after 2A1, Poi Ching has a very high chance not to ballot for <1km and even if ballot is high odds. 2A2 should add another 9% to 44% TUR at 2A2, which is historically low. I would suggest to monitor and go in on last 2C day.

St. Hilda can forget about it, too risky.

While statistics about TUR etc is good, considering them in silo usually doesn't work well. Geographical considerations are also important.

Firstly, schools in close proximity to one another 'suffer' together (high density). If TUR before Phase 2C is low, it encourages switchers. E.g. Poi Ching may have historically low TUR before Phase 2C this year, thus leaving plenty of seats for Phase 2C. It encourages applicants who might otherwise have considered Gongshang, Junyuan, St Hilda, Tampines North, Tampines or Yumin (depending on location, these schools are also < 1km of Poi Ching catchment area) to go for Poi Ching in Phase 2C instead. Singaporeans like a good g4mble, maybe this is their chance

Furthermore, I expect to see a spike for Poi Ching's application from 2019 and beyond. There's a YUGE project going on in Tampines North with a lot (and I do mean A LOT) of flats under construction in and around Tampines Ave 6 and Tampines St 61. For residents occupying these projects, there is only ONE school within 1km. The school's name? Poi Ching Estimated TOP? 2019 onwards :yikes: More than 30 blocks of flats and only 1 school within 1 km? Good luck to them :evil:

P/S: For the above, one school that shares similar switchers mentality - Chong Fu. Low TUR before Phase 2C means zilch. Plenty of lurkers < 1km who might consider other schools within 1km (plenty of options) will switch if the chance is high. For sudden spike, it happens to a much lesser known school - Punggol Green. From a school with surplus in Phase 2Cs, to a school that requires ballot for SC < 1km within 1 year, because Punggol Green is the only < 1km school for a huge number of BTOs.

reading the catchment now its like a huge equation.

I wonder why the tampines area has a dropped in intake from 2220 to 2040.

I read the risk appetite of tampines folks, from St hilda's folks having the highest threshold and 2nd comes Poi Ching and Gong Shang

PC history applicants past 5 years
2018 157 <1km
2017 107 <1km
2016 104 1-2km ballot
2015 121 <1km
2014 105 <1km

If Poi Ching TUR until 2B only hits 60% or lower, than the odds should be fairly good but the catchment of the area is such that potentially there are alot of <1km folks of PC, so it may still fall back to around 1.3 folks per vacancy.

The question goes back to what is the reasonable risk threshold is it 1.3X or 1.5X?

[lipstickhoarder]

Davischew\" post_id=\"1918897\" time=\"1562815293\" user_id=\"132882:

Orb\" post_id=\"1918891\" time=\"1562814595\" user_id=\"25015:

[quote=floppy post_id=1918885 time=1562813728 user_id=97579]

TBH, it’s hard to make any prediction for CHIJ TP. Location wise, it isn’t a new estate although there’s a couple of new projects within 1km. I think 1-2km has a chance, albeit an extremely slim one. May not be worth it to try if it’s less than a handful of seats.

Besides Toa Payoh, Balestier is also within 1 km of CHIJ TP. Typically, CHIJ TP has been balloting every year wth 1km in 2C... My guess is that this year is no different.

From Past data, if TUR for Phase 2A is < 49%, or Phase 2B < 74%, we have a high chance for 1-2km to ballot.
Now at 2A1, TUR already 49%. Usually for 2A2 it will increase at least 12% means total 61% TUR at 2A.
I would suggest to go for a backup school.[/quote]Thanks everyone for the insight. What about the other CHIJs, especially Katong or Hougang? SC outside 2km for Phase 2C.

[floppy]

howard1019\" post_id=\"1919170\" time=\"1562901459\" user_id=\"175129:

...
Both Junyuan and Tampines will be safe for us to apply in both 2C and 2CS. Is Tampines better than Junyuan? :roll:

None of these schools are safe for 2CS. You may not even get a chance at these two schools for 2CS. You will have to monitor carefully.

[Lexy]

lipstickhoarder\" post_id=\"1919183\" time=\"1562902940\" user_id=\"170757:

Davischew\" post_id=\"1918897\" time=\"1562815293\" user_id=\"132882:

[quote=Orb post_id=1918891 time=1562814595 user_id=25015]

Besides Toa Payoh, Balestier is also within 1 km of CHIJ TP. Typically, CHIJ TP has been balloting every year wth 1km in 2C... My guess is that this year is no different.

From Past data, if TUR for Phase 2A is < 49%, or Phase 2B < 74%, we have a high chance for 1-2km to ballot.
Now at 2A1, TUR already 49%. Usually for 2A2 it will increase at least 12% means total 61% TUR at 2A.
I would suggest to go for a backup school.

Thanks everyone for the insight. What about the other CHIJs, especially Katong or Hougang? SC outside 2km for Phase 2C.[/quote]katong is safer than OLN

[jongj80]

OK, consideration for 2B (Catholic) PR > 2km, for twin boy and girl. Is there any chance for PR balloting in 2B for SJI Junior and CHIJ TP? Since we qualify for 2B anyway, but I was told usually SC have to ballot. I also don’t know what we will do if one of them gets in… do we pull out and stick to co-ed options, or try another school nearby so school run won’t be mad…


Backup for 2C is Bukit Timah (further away) or Queenstown (nearby), both which are co-ed. I quite like the mix of nationalities in BTPS but worried it is quite small and further away. QTPS don’t know much, but seems bigger and its nearby, although I see a lot of construction happening. Is QTPS popular? I hear BTPS is safe. I didn’t hear much about NewTown so not considering. Appreciate your views on the 2C options. We stay <1km QTPS/NYPS.

[Orb]

lipstickhoarder\" post_id=\"1919183\" time=\"1562902940\" user_id=\"170757:

Davischew\" post_id=\"1918897\" time=\"1562815293\" user_id=\"132882:

[quote=Orb post_id=1918891 time=1562814595 user_id=25015]

Besides Toa Payoh, Balestier is also within 1 km of CHIJ TP. Typically, CHIJ TP has been balloting every year wth 1km in 2C... My guess is that this year is no different.

From Past data, if TUR for Phase 2A is < 49%, or Phase 2B < 74%, we have a high chance for 1-2km to ballot.
Now at 2A1, TUR already 49%. Usually for 2A2 it will increase at least 12% means total 61% TUR at 2A.
I would suggest to go for a backup school.

Thanks everyone for the insight. What about the other CHIJs, especially Katong or Hougang? SC outside 2km for Phase 2C.[/quote]Katong and OLGC will be safe for SC >2km while OLN typically ballots in 2C.
2CS will be risky for the all remaining CHIJs with vacancies.

[Trinius]

Need advise as I’m in a Dilemma. I’m currently trying Rosyth Primary under 2A2 but the take up rate is pretty high and we might end up balloting. So if we don’t get a seat, my other choices…


1) nan Chiau Primary (within 1km)
2) St Gabriel Primary (more than 2KM)

Actually St Gab also falls under 2A2 but we went ahead with Rosyth instead.

Would u think we might stand a chance for nan Chiau ? The applicant rates Super high and it’s worrying too.

Hopefully we succeed with Rosyth but gotta prepare for the worse scenario too.

[Davischew]

Orb\" post_id=\"1919197\" time=\"1562905416\" user_id=\"25015:

lipstickhoarder\" post_id=\"1919183\" time=\"1562902940\" user_id=\"170757:

[quote=Davischew post_id=1918897 time=1562815293 user_id=132882]

From Past data, if TUR for Phase 2A is < 49%, or Phase 2B < 74%, we have a high chance for 1-2km to ballot.
Now at 2A1, TUR already 49%. Usually for 2A2 it will increase at least 12% means total 61% TUR at 2A.
I would suggest to go for a backup school.

Thanks everyone for the insight. What about the other CHIJs, especially Katong or Hougang? SC outside 2km for Phase 2C.

Katong and OLGC will be safe for SC >2km while OLN typically ballots in 2C.
2CS will be risky for the all remaining CHIJs with vacancies.[/quote]Katong is a good choice. Only 3 years out of 12/13 years need to ballot for SC > 2km, other years all went in with no ballot