2008 P1 Registration Exercise for 2009 In-Take

[ChiefKiasu]

We just discovered a fundamental error in our assumptions in our data we got from the 2007 Primary 1 registration exercise. We had assumed that "Registered" means "successful registration", when in fact it means "Hopeful Applicants". That led to an erroneous interpretation of the results into "schools will increase their in-take to cater to demand". We have recomputed numbers and verified it against this year’s data, and found that schools will pretty much stick to the vacancies they publish at the beginning of the exercise, and the maximum variation we have found is an increase of 2 places in a school last year.


Fortunately, it didn’t change our rating of the schools very much in terms of take-up rates or balloting risks. The good news is that with the new assumption, we are able to really estimate the popularity of the schools based on actual applicants, and not just successful registrants.

We apologize for the confusion, and categorically state that neither the school nor MOE would do much to increase the class size or number of classes even if the demand is very high.

We have updated all the statistics including the latest 2008 Phase 2B results.

[ChiefKiasu]

Complete Phase 2B results are in.


Phase 2B confirmed balloting or cut-off
- CHIJ St Nicholas (180%!)
- St Hilda's (176%)
- St Joseph's (160%)
- Tao Nan (159%)
- Methodist Girls (145%)
- CHIJ Toa Payoh (139%)
- Holy Innocent's (139%)
- ACS Junior (134%)
- Ai Tong (134%)
- Catholic High (130%)
- Nan Hua (130%)
- Nan Chiau (126%)
- Temasek (124%)
- De La Salle (119%)
- ACS Primary (117%)
- Chongfu (115%)
- Pei Hwa (110%)
- Red Swastika (102%) (Not sure if got balloting yet)
- CHIJ (Katong) (101%) (Not sure if got balloting yet)
- Maha Bodhi (100%) (Not sure if got balloting yet)

No balloting in Phase 2B
* Nanyang (no change)
* Henry Park (risk upgraded)
* Bukit Panjang (risk upgraded)
* Rivervale (risk upgraded)
* Chongzheng (risk upgraded)
* Rosyth (risk upgraded)
* Fairfield Methodish (risk upgraded)
* St Anthony's (risk increased)
* Northland (risk increased)
* Pei Chun (no change - may not ballot in Phase 2B)

[titank]

ChiefKiasu:

Complete Phase 2B results are in.


Phase 2B confirmed balloting or cut-off
- CHIJ St Nicholas (180%!)
- St Hilda's (176%)
- St Joseph's (160%)
- Tao Nan (159%)
- Methodist Girls (145%)
- CHIJ Toa Payoh (139%)
- Holy Innocent's (139%)
- ACS Junior (134%)
- Ai Tong (134%)
- Catholic High (130%)
- Nan Hua (130%)
- Nan Chiau (126%)
- Temasek (124%)
- De La Salle (119%)
- ACS Primary (117%)
- Chongfu (115%)
- Pei Hwa (110%)
- Red Swastika (102%) (Not sure if got balloting yet)
- CHIJ (Katong) (101%) (Not sure if got balloting yet)
- Maha Bodhi (100%) (Not sure if got balloting yet)

No balloting in Phase 2B
* Nanyang (no change)
* Henry Park (risk upgraded)
* Bukit Panjang (risk upgraded)
* Rivervale (risk upgraded)
* Chongzheng (risk upgraded)
* Rosyth (risk upgraded)
* Fairfield Methodish (risk upgraded)
* St Anthony's (risk increased)
* Northland (risk increased)
* Pei Chun (no change - may not ballot in Phase 2B)

Hi Chief Kiasu,

How about Radin Mas & River Valley? Possible 50% chance of balloting?

[ChiefKiasu]

titank:

Hi Chief Kiasu,


How about Radin Mas & River Valley? Possible 50% chance of balloting?

titank, I assume you are referring to Phase 2C?

Radin Mas no balloting in Phase 2B. The applications were only 29% of the available places. However, since the average TUR is 58%, there is a high chance of balloting in Phase 2C.

The same goes for River Valley. No balloting in Phase 2B since applications are only 53%. But the average TUR is 66%, so again chances are very high for balloting in Phase 2C.

[ChiefKiasu]

http://www.kiasuparents.com/kiasu/content/singapore-primary-1-registration-school-balloting-history of the final day in Phase 2C balloting. Notice how RGS shot up by 106% (82 new applicants) in this last day! Also, notice how Fairfield Methodist Primary lost 36% (21 former applicants) as parents re-evaluate their options. This is important for future generations of parents to note with regards to the behaviorial dynamics of parents towards these specific schools. Fortunately, these schools are more of the exception than the norm.


We also noted that certain schools (such as St. Hilda's) have increased their vacancies for Phase 2C during the last few days, indicating that certain parents who have successfully registered in the previous phases changed their minds to register in other schools. A total of 72 schools increased their vacancies, the majority by 1, and the highest drop-out rate was 6 at Tao Nan!.

All the schools we predicted on the 2nd day of Phase 2C that will go into balloting situations (>100% TUR) did go into them, with the exception of Ang Mo Kio Primary and Geylang Methodist. Congratulations to parents who have gotten their children successfully registered today, and good luck to those who face balloting situations in the next few days.

[tohwei]

CT:

Can anyone tell me the chances for balloting in phase 2C for

1. Nan Hua
2. Fairfield Methodist
3. Henry Park :?:

HENRY PARK ACCEPT VOLUNTEERS

YEAR 2010 IS CLOSED.

YEAR 2011 STARTS FROM 2ND JAN TO 31 DEC 2008 FOR KID BORN IN YEAR 2004

[khorkar]

Wow!, who would ever guess that registering kids to SG schools can be so interesting. Wish I have one every year to try out different registrations Damn, its so competitive out there... even from primary schools.


Oh, well. At least I am glad that I found a good environment for my kids to go to school.

[mrs nai]

[Moderator's Note: Topics merged.]


Hi, a bit kiasu here :oops: just in case my boy couldnt get into Jurong West Pri, may need to choose between boon lay garden pri, corporation pri & juying pri (all between 1-2km). Pls advise which sch is better. Thks.

[oskwks]

I wanted to know about the phase 2C supplementary preparation too. Anyone can advise here. What do I need to do for phase 2C supplementary? Do I need to queue early in the morning or overnight on phase 2C supplementary registration day for school that left with few vacancy? Is it base on first come first serve basis?

[shadowplay]

oskwks:

I wanted to know about the phase 2C supplementary preparation too. Anyone can advise here. What do I need to do for phase 2C supplementary? Do I need to queue early in the morning or overnight on phase 2C supplementary registration day for school that left with few vacancy? Is it base on first come first serve basis?

Phase 2C Supp is still by distance priority and balloting if required.
Only phase 3 is on First-come-first-serve basis.