COP 2012 - For Secondary Schools in 2013

[anxious father]

anxious father:

Will COPs of HCI, NJC, RVHS, RI and DHS go up or down?


Here are the background information of their PLSE COP (Lower), Upper and Median. I use EESIS (COP of top 3%) as the reference.

Note: I got the information on pupil numers, Lower, Upper and Median of PSLE for each school from MOE and EESIS from this forum.
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HCI (includes HML)
Year Pupil Lower Upper Median EESIS
2009 49,856 259 283 263 263
2010 48,541 257 281 261 261
2011 45,049 257 273 260 260
2012 45,261 258 274 261 260
2013 48,333 ? ? ? 262

NJC
Year Pupil Lower Upper Median EESIS
2009 49,856 259 278 261 263
2010 48,541 257 281 260 261
2011 45,049 257 266 259 260
2012 45,261 258 269 259 260
2013 48,333 ? ? ? 262

RVHS (includes HML)
Year Pupil Lower Upper Median EESIS
2009 49,856 254 272 257 263
2010 48,541 251 274 256 261
2011 45,049 253 275 256 260
2012 45,261 254 270 257 260
2013 48,333 ? ? ? 262

RI
Year Pupil Lower Upper Median EESIS
2009 49,856 262 284 267 263
2010 48,541 259 283 265 261
2011 45,049 259 275 263 260
2012 45,261 261 273 264 260
2013 48,333 ? ? ? 262

DHS (includes HML)
Year Pupil Lower Upper Median EESIS
2009 49,856 260 282 262 263
2010 48,541 258 285 261 261
2011 45,049 257 275 260 260
2012 45,261 256 273 259 260
2013 48,333 ? ? ? 262
---------------------------------------------------------------
Opinion 1: The COPs to these top IP schools will go up as
1) There are more pupils than last year (but it is comparable to 2009/2010).
2) There is higher EESIS this year.

Opinion 2: The COPs to some of these top IP schools might go down as there are more IP schools this year and they will, more or less, attract some of the top scorers (T-score>260)

My opinion: The COPs to these school may go up 1 mark.

What is your opinion?

POSITIONS IN IP SCHOOLS
Boys
RI: 450
HCI : 450
ACSI : 180
Catholic High: 170 (start from 2013)
SJI : 125 (start from 2013)
Victoria : 160
Subtotal: 1535 (DSA, ≤768; Available for S1, >767)

Girls
MGS : 60 (start from 2013)
SCGS : 120 (start from 2013)
St Nicholas : 170 (start from 2013)
Cedar Girls : 160
Nanyang Girls : 400
RGS : 450
Subtotal: 1360 (DSA, ≤680; Available for S1, >680)

Co-ed
TJC : 150 (start from 2013)
Dunman High : 400
NJC : 200
NUS High : 150-170 (almost full by DSA)
River Valley High : 400
Subtotal: 1320 (DSA, ≤745; Available for S1, > 575)

Total: 4215 (start from 2013, 795; DSA, ~2193; Available for S1, > 2022)

Top 3% pupils in 2013, 1150 (COP, 262 based on EESIS)
Top 5% pupils in 2013, 2417
Top 10% pupils in 2013, 4833

[Dreamgear]

wonderm:

jtoh:

[quote=\"wonderm\"]

Personally, I am more interested in median than mean. It would also be interesting to know the data points if DSA students were included since many of these schools DSA 50% of their Sec 1 intake.

Yes, it would be interesting to see the complete data points, with the DSA students included.

I have my doubts that schools take up to 50% of their intake thru DSA, with the exception of specialty schools like NUSH, SST and SOTA etc. I think the numbers are much lower based on my simple observation and calculation.[/quote]

Really? that's interesting. I got the idea that they take in 50% DSA because some of the schools told the parents during their Open Houses or briefing. For those schools which give out both CO and WL, I thought the final DSA numbers are close to, if not exactly, 50%.

If the schools do not find enough \"quality\" applicants during DSA phase to fill up 50% of intake, I think it is better that they leave more places for the S1 posting.[/quote]Well there will be some with multiple COs and some who gave up the CO, so likely not to be 50%.

[anxious father]

jtoh:

ks2011:

[quote=\"jtoh\"]So based on parents' info, the EESIS COP for this year is 262. Up from last year.

If EESIS has gone up this year, could it mean that the COP for some of the schools will also go up by 1-2 points?

There are a number of variants involved so difficult to say conclusively. But generally, if EESIS goes up, then COP for the top schools is likely to go up too. COP for second tier schools may not change bec there are more IP schools this year but also bear in mind it's a dragon year so there may be more competition in that range as well.[/quote]Does HCI belong to 1st tier or 2nd tier? If HMTL were removed, the COP of HCI is much lower than RI and slightly lower than NJC.

[jtoh]

anxious father:

POSITIONS IN IP SCHOOLS
Boys
RI: 450
HCI : 450
ACSI : 180
Catholic High: 170 (start from 2013)
SJI : 125 (start from 2013)
Victoria : 160
Subtotal: 1535 (DSA, ≤768; Available for S1, >767)

Girls
MGS : 60 (start from 2013)
SCGS : 120 (start from 2013)
St Nicholas : 170 (start from 2013)
Cedar Girls : 160
Nanyang Girls : 400
RGS : 450
Subtotal: 1360 (DSA, ≤680; Available for S1, >680)

Co-ed
TJC : 150 (start from 2013)
Dunman High : 400
NJC : 200
NUS High : 150-170 (almost full by DSA)
River Valley High : 400
Subtotal: 1320 (DSA, ≤745; Available for S1, > 575)

Total: 4215 (start from 2013, 795; DSA, ~2193; Available for S1, > 2022)

Top 3% pupils in 2013, 1150 (COP, 262 based on EESIS)
Top 5% pupils in 2013, 2417
Top 10% pupils in 2013, 4833

Based on your figures above, the number of IP places does correlate to the number of students in the top 10%. The govt did say that IP is intended for those who score a minimum of 250. So the numbers are about there. Not forgetting that this year's dragon cohort is larger than other years and we have not added in IP spots in SOTA yet.

[jtoh]

anxious father:

jtoh:

[quote=\"ks2011\"]
If EESIS has gone up this year, could it mean that the COP for some of the schools will also go up by 1-2 points?

There are a number of variants involved so difficult to say conclusively. But generally, if EESIS goes up, then COP for the top schools is likely to go up too. COP for second tier schools may not change bec there are more IP schools this year but also bear in mind it's a dragon year so there may be more competition in that range as well.

Does HCI belong to 1st tier or 2nd tier? If HMTL were removed, the COP of HCI is much lower than RI and slightly lower than NJC.[/quote]I would classify HCI as 1st tier.

[Vanilla Cake]

jtoh:

Based on your figures above, the number of IP places does correlate to the number of students in the top 10%. The govt did say that IP is intended for those who score a minimum of 250. So the numbers are about there. Not forgetting that this year's dragon cohort is larger than other years and we have not added in IP spots in SOTA yet.

Size of P6 cohort in various years
48333 - 2012 (This year's dragon cohort)
45251 - 2011
45049 - 2010\t
48541 - 2009
49856 - 2008
49817 - 2007\t
50615 - 2006\t
51087 - 2005
50863 - 2004
51327 - 2003
53149 - 2002
50331 - 2001
54734 - 2000 (Previous year's dragon cohort)
45420 - 1999\t
40021 - 1998
43460 - 1997
42798 - 1996
42403 - 1995

VC's mum

[MMM]

Vanilla Cake:

48333 - 2012 (This year's dragon cohort)
45251 - 2011
45049 - 2010\t
48541 - 2009
49856 - 2008
49817 - 2007\t
50615 - 2006\t
51087 - 2005
50863 - 2004
51327 - 2003
53149 - 2002
50331 - 2001
54734 - 2000 (Previous year's dragon cohort)
45420 - 1999\t
40021 - 1998
43460 - 1997
42798 - 1996
42403 - 1995

VC's mum

Horse is another year with potentially higher no. of P6s????

[jtoh]

Vanilla Cake:

jtoh:

Based on your figures above, the number of IP places does correlate to the number of students in the top 10%. The govt did say that IP is intended for those who score a minimum of 250. So the numbers are about there. Not forgetting that this year's dragon cohort is larger than other years and we have not added in IP spots in SOTA yet.

Size of P6 cohort in various years
48333 - 2012 (This year's dragon cohort)
45251 - 2011
45049 - 2010\t
48541 - 2009
49856 - 2008
49817 - 2007\t
50615 - 2006\t
51087 - 2005
50863 - 2004
51327 - 2003
53149 - 2002
50331 - 2001
54734 - 2000 (Previous year's dragon cohort)
45420 - 1999\t
40021 - 1998
43460 - 1997
42798 - 1996
42403 - 1995

VC's mum

I meant this year's cohort is larger as compared to other years (as in non-dragon years) and not last few dragon years. But it is interesting to note the trend in falling birth rate from mid-2000, with just a minor spike in this year's 2012 cohort.

[onemore]

jtoh:

I didn't realize the number of students taking PSLE in 2009 was 49,856, higher than the Dragon year cohort this year.


My predictions:
1) COP for top tier IP schools will go up.
2) COP for other IP schools will remain about the same or go down minimally bec of the increase in IP places with the intro of new IP schools.

same here.. :hi5:

[Hollyking]

onemore:

jtoh:

I didn't realize the number of students taking PSLE in 2009 was 49,856, higher than the Dragon year cohort this year.


My predictions:
1) COP for top tier IP schools will go up.
2) COP for other IP schools will remain about the same or go down minimally bec of the increase in IP places with the intro of new IP schools.

same here.. :hi5:

It has and always will be a demand and supply issue. If supply has increased in IP schools this year, COP could go down. Usually the new entrants will get the lowwer end of the stick.

With more students in the cohort due to the dragon yr, there will be nore applying to non-IP schools, so expect the COP of SAP and Autonomous schools to move up slightly. COP on the whole does not fluctuate much for these schools, typically plus/minus 1 to 2. Only very recently did we see an Autonomous School Dunman Sec dropped COP below 230 to 229.